Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump among Latino voters. But that advantage has declined to Democrats’ lowest level in the past four presidential cycles, according to a new national NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
Overall, the poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Harris has lost some ground with Latinos at a time when these consequential voters are more likely than the general electorate to cite the economy and the rising cost of living as top priorities. On both of these issues, Latino voters give Trump the advantage, but a majority of them prefer Harris on temperament, competency and having the necessary mental and physical health to be president.
Support for Harris is at 54% among registered Latino voters, according to the poll, while Trump gets 40% and another 6% say they’re unsure or wouldn’t vote. The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
While Harris’ 14-point advantage is an improvement from President Joe Biden’s standing when he was at the top of the ticket, it is still lower than the past leads Democratic presidential candidates enjoyed in 2012 (by 39 points), 2016 (50 points) and 2020 (36 points), according to NBC’s merged polling data from those past cycles.(Ultimately, Democratic presidential candidates ended up winning Latino voters by 44 points in 2012, 38 points in 2016 and 33 points in 2020, according to the NBC News exit polls in those years.)
Similarly, Latino voters’ preference for which party controls Congress stands at 54% Democrats, 42% Republicans — a much narrower gap than in past years.
Driving the declining support for Democrats in the presidential contest are defections from Latino men, particularly those without college degrees and those under the age of 50, the poll shows. But solid Democratic support from Hispanic women, or Latinas, has helped offset some of that erosion.Surveying 1,000 Latino voters nationwide in English and Spanish, the poll also finds a striking split on immigration between Latino voters who prioritize a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and preventing discrimination, and those who focus more on border enforcement.
The latest findings underscore the political diversity of Latinos, which mirror broader divisions seen across the general electorate.
“Latino voters are incredibly diverse. It can’t be overstressed,” said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Micah Roberts and his team at Public Opinion Strategies. “We are looking at Latino voters rather than a consolidated Latino community.”
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