Timeline of the Bird Flu Outbreak and Egg Price Increases:

Early 2022: The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu, begins spreading across commercial poultry farms in the U.S., leading to mass culling of infected flocks.
Mid-2022: Egg prices start to rise sharply as millions of birds are culled to prevent further spread.
Late 2022: The outbreak intensifies, with over 50 million birds affected. Egg prices surge to record highs, exceeding $5 per dozen in some areas.
Early 2023: The USDA implements emergency measures, but new outbreaks continue. Egg prices fluctuate based on supply shortages.
2024: Bird flu remains persistent, with seasonal spikes causing additional supply constraints and price increases.
2025: The USDA announces a $1 billion plan to mitigate the ongoing crisis.

The bird flu outbreak has proven difficult to contain for several reasons:

Wild Bird Transmission: Migratory birds carry and spread the virus, making it nearly impossible to completely eliminate.
High Density Farming: Large-scale poultry operations house thousands of birds in close quarters, allowing rapid disease transmission.
Slow Repopulation Efforts: Even after culling infected flocks, it takes months to raise new, healthy laying hens.
Lack of Universal Vaccination: While vaccines exist, concerns over international trade restrictions and logistics have prevented widespread implementation.

The USDA’s $1 billion plan aims to stabilize egg prices, but relief will not be immediate.

Biosecurity Investments ($500M): Strengthening protections can reduce outbreaks in the long run but won’t have an immediate effect on current supply shortages.
Flock Replacement ($400M): Since it takes 6-12 months for new hens to reach full egg-laying productivity, consumers may not see major price relief until late 2025.
Imports and Vaccination Efforts ($100M): Exploring imports and vaccinations may offer short-term relief, but it depends on how quickly these measures can be implemented.

Despite high U.S. demand, Mexico has limitations on increasing egg exports:

Domestic Demand: Mexico has one of the highest per capita egg consumption rates in the world and prioritizes its local market.
Supply Constraints: Mexican egg production has also faced challenges, including outbreaks of avian flu.
Trade Restrictions: Differences in biosecurity standards, certification processes, and U.S. import regulations limit the volume of eggs that can be sent.

Looking Ahead While the USDA’s plan is a step toward stabilizing the market, egg prices will likely remain high for much of 2025. Long-term solutions, including vaccination strategies and more resilient poultry farming practices, may be necessary to prevent future disruptions.

Egg prices will increase 41% this year in the US, according to official forecasts