The very early polling on a Harris-Trump election suggests a reset in the fight over Latino voters. The Hispanic electorate now looks more in line with the other Trump-era elections of 2020 and 2022 than with a wide partisan realignment.
As of a few weeks ago, a wide range of scenarios appeared plausible, including one in which Republicans built significantly on 2020 gains among Latinos. Now, early signs are that the Kamala Harris campaign is on track to hold off a GOP surge.
In our polling this cycle, as in public polls, we saw results that occasionally made us question what was actual movement in the electorate, what were merely expressions of discontent, and what were polling errors immune to adjustment. (“Can Donald Trump win a majority of Latinos under 30?” was one such hall of mirrors. Needless to say, that scenario can now be ruled out with a high degree of confidence.)
This uncertainty in measurement reflected the uncertainty in the real world: Latino voters were feeling beat down by a parade of crises. Their top issue priorities reflected insecurity that was both physical (gun violence, crime) and economic (rising costs, including housing and healthcare). And key voters distrusted both candidates for different reasons. The Biden-Trump rematch was scrambling signals and loosening traditional group norms.
With the entrance of Kamala Harris, we are seeing results that are back in a historically normal range. Relative to Biden, she sees rebounds across Latino subgroups, with the largest among young people. As one swing Latina woman put it in a recent Pennsylvania focus group, Harris is “a light at the end of the tunnel” for many who were torn about their vote choice.
At the same time, Harris still has more work to do: our polling suggests she is tracking short of Biden’s 2020 support levels among Latinos by a few points. Her consolidation of discontented Latinos has been quick and dramatic, and our research suggests she has room for more movement. But neither side can afford to take these voters for granted over the last 80 days.
The kind of Latino voters who could tip the outcome in not only Arizona and Nevada but also Wisconsin and Pennsylvania do not closely follow election news. They don’t have hard partisan identities. They are experts in their lives but not in politics. And if history is any guide, many of them won’t make up their minds — about whether to vote, or who to vote for — until closer to the election.
In important ways, this race has just begun.
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