The latest inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will land Wednesday morning, and it’s expected to show consumer prices grew at a steady pace in August.
Economists expect the data to show a 3.6% overall increase in consumer prices compared to a year ago. That would be the second time the year-on-year inflation measure has ticked upward since July after 12 consecutive months of declines.
On average, the experts expect a 4.3% year-over-year increase in core consumer prices, a measurement of cost increases that removes energy and food prices, which tend to be more volatile.
The Federal Reserve has been focusing on core consumer pricing recently as it tries to crimp inflation.
Broadly speaking, the central bank’s effort seems to have been working. Overall consumer pricing was 3.2% in July compared to July 2022, while core consumer pricing was 4.7%.
Sarah House, a senior economist for Wells Fargo, said that consumer pricing is gradually coming down but that it ticked higher in August because of cuts in oil production, which led to higher gasoline prices.
“The most important thing [Wednesday] is what happens not just in terms of the core print, but what are the drivers underneath the surface,” House said in an interview, referring to the consumer priecing metric that excludes food and energy prices.
“It seems like momentum is for lower consumer pricing. We still have a lot of disinflationary pressures,” meaning the current economic conditions are helping steadily drive inflation downward.
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