The Social Security program is expected to run short of cash to pay promised benefits in about ten years, while a key trust fund for Medicare will run out of funds by 2031, according to new forecasts issued Friday by trustees of both programs.
The projections serve as an annual reminder that the popular programs rest on shaky financial footings. While any effort to patch them is sure to face stiff political opposition, doing nothing is likely to be worse.
Social Security benefits for retirees and others are primarily paid for through payroll taxes on current workers, and are supplemented by a trust fund.
Benefits paid out by the program have exceeded money coming in since 2021, and the trust fund is now expected to be depleted by 2033. That’s a year earlier than forecast last year, thanks in part to slower economic growth.
Unless changes are made before then to shore up the program, 66 million Social Security recipients would see their benefits cut by 23-25%.
Meanwhile, the Medicare trust fund, which supplements payments to hospitals and nursing homes, is also running out of cash. That could result in an 11% pay cut to health care providers unless changes are made by 2031. That deadline is three years later than had been forecast last year.
Trustees anticipate some cost savings for Medicare, thanks to a switch to less-expensive outpatient treatments and because some people who would have required the most costly care died prematurely during the pandemic.
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